Juggling Dynamite – The Blog

Roach: "Keep watching the pithy commentators…for clarity, truth and justice."

daniellepark — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:22:00 -0500

Economist Stephen Roach appeared on CNBC Asia yesterday reminding us that the 9.7% official US unemployment stat dramatically under-states reality. The US Jobless rate today is actually 11.5% when we add back in the 3m disgruntled workers who have been unemployed so long that they have stopped looking for work: “For some bizarre reason, the U.S. statisticians do not count these poor souls as unemployed”. (The under-employed statistic is more like 20% when we count in the millions who are working less than they wish due to lack of employment opportunity).

"The demand side is going to be very impaired by the U.S. consumer and there's no other consumer that is going to fill the void," Roach continued.
While China and India make up nearly 40 percent of the world's population, Roach noted that the two countries will not be able to pick-up the slack in U.S. demand collectively, as their consumption adds up to $2.5 trillion, which is equivalent to 25 percent of total demand in the United States. That's a key reason to look for a double dip," he said, reiterating his view of a 40 percent chance of a double-dip in the next couple of years.

I wish I could disagree with him. It feels like October 2007 deja vu all over again.

MoneyTalk Interview

daniellepark — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 10:48:00 -0500

Ms. Park was a guest on MoneyTalk with Patricia Lovett-Reid Monday March 8 at 8pm EST. A clip is available on the web site here.

Being broke sucks

daniellepark — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:15:00 -0500

There are many stories of late about people balking against tough choices needed to remedy their financial duress. Yes, being broke sucks.

But at the end of the day, laws of gravity do apply, and we humans must accept, adapt and move forward. These are remarkable times: the past couple of decades of falling rates and credit expansion have trained us to expect a high level of service and lifestyle that in many cases we can simply no longer afford. Actually one could argue that we never could afford some of these things, but thanks to 'credit magic' we were able to pretend otherwise for a good long while. It turns out, things weren't different this time; the piper has come for his payment.

See Bloomberg: German Politicians want Greece to sell islands.

And NY Times: As Budget cuts free prisoners, states face a backlash Remember all that hard-right crack down on crime under Bush Jr? Turns out most States can no longer afford the incarceration.

I am reminded of many real life examples over the years, where a bankruptcy or divorce, death or other misfortune suddenly demand a large financial reckoning to a family or individuals. Yard sale-like auctions of prized possessions are the norm. The initial response is usually always one of disbelief or outright rejection: "This is ridiculous!" "Over my dead body!" "I won't stand for it!" In the end, we all do what we must to change unsustainable habits and get back to the work of digging ourselves out and up. There are tough choices all around. But after stomping of feet and gnashing of teeth, the only solution is to cut the artifice, admit the mistakes and get back to honest, hard work.--the sooner the better. No more cake and eat it too. We have to give to get; and yes its hard to do.

A few noteworthy opinions today

daniellepark — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 14:14:00 -0500

Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., talked with Bloomberg's Maryam Nemazee about the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy, See:Roach Expects `Very Modest' U.S. Consumer Spending March 4 (Bloomberg)
Bottom line from Roach: don't confuse the bottoming process in a 'new normal' global economy, with hopes for a 'bounce-back' recovery."

Also Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc., talked with Bloomberg's Betty Liu about his stock market analysis and investment advice. See:
Robert Prechter Says Equities to Drop, Invest in Cash March 4 (Bloomberg).

And see this March 1, 2010 paper "Where are we now?" by respected Market Technician Dick Arms. (Hat tip The Big Picture Blog) Our market technician Cory Venable has been speaking about similar themes the past couple of months. I find it noteworthy when completely separate (and excellent) analysts use their own unique filter set and arrive at similar conclusions. Dick's paper is even readable for non-technicians—a bonus!

The bear market blues: 10 costly declines

daniellepark — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 13:04:00 -0500

MSN Money does a series of slideshows on market data which are often illuminating in terms of macro trends and big picture. This one: The bear market blues: 10 costly declines offers some interesting historical capture on 10 "bear' markets of the 1900's (not sure how they picked these ten, there were several other bad ones that were not included in the series).

Note some common themes throughout on human behaviour driving erratic markets. And keep in mind that only those not prepared for bear markets get mauled by them. Exit rules are required.

Wise 80 year olds have rare perspective

daniellepark — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:04:00 -0500

I miss my grandparents. They have been dead for 26 years but I still think of them daily and miss them a lot. They lived through the depression; they knew how to make life from scratch. They were self-sufficient in ways that our generation seems unable to imagine. As a young analyst looking for mentors and wise counsel in the money business, I came up empty a lot. It seemed that the wise ones were extremely scarce and almost always at least 75 years old. Multi-decade experience reaching back to the 20's seemed to leave an indelible stamp of insight on a few. The trouble with 80 year olds is they eventually end sooner than we would like.

In April 2006 we lost John Galbraith. Last year Peter Bernstein and John Templeton in 2008. Paul Volcker, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are now 80 +. I guess they plan to just drop in their tracks some day; trying to teach right to the end. Trouble is I don't see many younger candidates to take their place to day. This interview with Charlie Munger is refreshingly candid.

Governments need to back away from trying to "save" the housing market

daniellepark — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 22:32:00 -0500

Governments have gone to extremes trying to prop up and save home prices from the normal corrective forces of over-supply and weak demand. The trouble is they have blown a fortune trying to stop the inevitable reckoning process, and in the end the dominant forces of downward prices will surely resume. As we have seen in Japan over the past 20 years, the more governments try to stop the correction needed the more they drag out the painful process. Housing expert Robert Shiller talked on CNBC yesterday about the double dip risks to the economy ahead. The bottom line is that governments are not magicians who can solve over-capacity problems with a flick of their fiscal wand; they can elongate the problems, but they cannot "fix" them. I think 2010 will be the year when the world wakes up to this realization.

Bank Profits Ready to Tumble, Stocks to Fall: Whitney

daniellepark — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 10:26:00 -0500

The US banking system will lose 30 percent more than consensus estimates as shrinking loan portfolios squeeze profits, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

While increased governmental regulations will restrict the industry somewhat, Whitney said that the decline of up to 20 percent in lending portfolios will enact far more damage on bank balance sheets.

"Your good borrowers don't want to borrow, and your bad borrowers you're trying to kick out of the system," she said. "So on average lending portfolios are down 4 to 20 percent and we think they're going to be down another 10 to 15 percent for all the big banks this year."

Euro-Dollar headed to parity?

daniellepark — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 14:43:00 -0500

Gary Shilling was on Bloomberg yesterday explaining the possibility of parity for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. That would be a further 25% increase of the U$ versus the Euro at this point and is likely to have broadly negative implications for other risk assets over the next few months. A strengthening dollar also presents extra hurdles for the Obama administration's mandate to create new jobs asap. Every 1 percent increase in the dollar, averaged against other major currencies, knocks U.S. exports down by about $20 billion annually and destroys some 150,000 jobs, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based nonpartisan research group.

As I have said for some time now, it is not that the US is doing much right these days, but more that the world is now realizing the Euro zone is deeply mired in its own debt problems and even less along the road to solutions than the US. Since the credit crisis hit first in America the focus has been mostly on US ills for the past couple of years as the world punished the dollar. Now the realization is building that the EU problems are massive and even harder to manage than the US in many ways with all of the EU's separate governments, policies and philosophies.

Watch the Bloomberg clip here.

Hats off to Bill Gates

daniellepark — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 22:38:00 -0500

If I were a semi-retired billionaire I would hope that I would not just sit around my house shopping on-line and drinking martinis, I would hope to invest my energy in solving a world problem or two. In 2050 I will be 84 and my kids will be 51 and 52 hopefully with kids of their own. And hopefully by that point, we will have engineered for the world much more sustainable methods of harnessing and burning energy on our planet. Gates speaks about a new type of nuclear reactor he is investing in to achieve the attainable "miracle" of zero carbon emissions globally by 2050. I know it is possible to achieve innovation "miracles" (we have certainly done it many times before) and especially when people stop resisting change, and stop spending their time arguing about whether cleaner, sustainable, domestic energy is a good idea or not. Can we just get on with it already please? Time is a wasting.

Hat tip Barry Ritholtz

Keep an eye on "consumption" versus "demand"

daniellepark — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 10:42:00 -0500

Demand is a broad term that encompasses, stock piling and speculative interest. At the end of the day, consumption demand is what dictates sustainable price moves, and consumption demand has not recovered to support massive prices spikes in copper and other commodities the past few months. see Copper Prices in for a massive correction. Buyers should beware.

BNN Wed morning at 8:35pm est

daniellepark — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 22:06:00 -0500

Ms. Park was a guest on BNN this morning, Wednesday February 17 at 8:35 am est. A clip of the interview is available on the BNN web site.

New study highlights Canadian debt levels

daniellepark — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 22:01:00 -0500

The Vanier Institute today released its 11th annual report on The current state of Canadian family finances: 2009 report. Some excellent charts depict key trends in the financial status of Canadian families. Its not a pretty picture. Some of the highlights:

-Average household debt climbed to a record $96,000 per family in 2009
-Debt to family income levels rose to 145% (!), the highest ever reached since the study began and predicted to climb to 160% by 2012 if trends persist
-mortgage payments more than 90 days in arrears jumped 50% over 2008
-credit card payments in arrears three months jumped 40%
-59% of family finances were in such a fragile situation that a delay of just one week in a pay cheque would cause serious difficulties
-70% of women with young children were now working outside the home, pointing to the need for two incomes to make ends meet.
-The booming housing market was singled out as a particular area of concern, with record-low interest rates encouraging families to take on more debt than they can afford to buy a property.
-Over the past 20 years, Canadian housing prices have averaged 3.7 times household earnings. At the end of 2009, prices are closer to 5 times household earnings with real estate making up a record 48% of the net worth of Canadian households

The following quote captures some of the study's key conclusions...

Roubini on Greece and the global "rolling debt crisis."

daniellepark — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:18:00 -0500

Nouriel Roubini was a guest host Friday on CNBC. Good discussion on Greece and the "rolling debt crisis" around the globe.

CNBC's Larry Kudlow to run for Senate?

daniellepark — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 15:39:00 -0500

Apparently there is a move afoot to get CNBC host Larry Kudlow to run against Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) in the upcoming election. The scarier thought is that he might win. In my opinion, there is hardly a soul alive who represents reckless financial commentators better than Larry Kudlow; and that is saying something because the reckless-commentator-pack in financial media is broad and deep.

I have cringed at Kudlow's perpetually-bullish, far right rants since he first began on CNBC's "Kudlow and Cramer" in the late '90's. Back then Kudlow played straight man to Jim Cramer's madman skits. After that deadly duo broke up, Kudlow went on to direct his own panels of nightly nonsense.

This article from Andrew Leonard examining Kudlow’s market-call record is cathartic:

“It's not just that the prospect of an inveterate anti-tax, pro-supply-side ideologue with high name recognition running for the Senate in the media capital of the world would be the equivalent of a massive jobs stimulus plan targeted directly at the beleaguered news business. There's also the fun to be had detailing how one man could so consistently be so wrong when discussing his supposed specialty: the economy” ….

Read the whole article here.

The economic grass isn't greener in Canada

daniellepark — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 13:49:00 -0500

It is human nature to think (hope) that grass may be greener in farther pastures. If you happen to be living in trauma centers like Darfur or Haiti, no doubt you would be right.

But if you happen to live in the developed world—ground zero for our generation’s credit crisis—there is little truth to support the hope. We have pretty much done the same dumb, over-levered things everywhere these past few years: politicians wanting to be popular adopted a unanimous and mistaken belief that increased home ownership on pretty much any terms was good. Bank heads believed that securitization made them genius magicians who could magnify zero equity into fabulous risk-free profits for all. The masses bought in; the debt and equity markets levered it up. Until suddenly (or so it seemed) in March 2007, people began stirring from the dream to discover we aren’t “richer than we think”, in fact we are collectively broke.

The past month a fresh spate of horror is sweeping the world as the extent of the European debt debacle unfolds...

The trouble with inflated asset prices

daniellepark — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 13:45:00 -0500

The trouble with most asset prices today is that they are quite simply inflated. The run up since March '09 means that many prices are over-shooting the reality of world demand by a significant margin at present. This chart of copper makes the point well:

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. via Ian Farrell

The nub of the matter is this. Even if you see some economic recovery ahead, prices have already discounted that and a good deal more. The anti-US dollar trade has been the catalyst for much of the price moves in risk assets the past several months. If the U dollar rebound continues for a bit, the threat of significant damage to stock and commodity prices should not be ignored.

Housekeeping announcement: VPIC now serving American clients

daniellepark — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 22:35:00 -0500

Thanks to repeated requests for service from US residents over the past couple of years, I am pleased to announce that my money management company Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. is now registered with the SEC and happily accepting US clients. To any US readers that are interested or have contacted us in the past and were told no, please do drop me an email to discuss your needs.

TARP Special Investigator Neil Barofsky interviewed

daniellepark — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 20:33:00 -0500

Neil Barofsky was interviewed by Dylan Ratigan tonight on MSNBC. Barofsky is going after the truth in the AIG debacle. He says civil and criminal prosecutions are in the pipeline and that he thinks there will be hand-cuffs coming for some. He also explains why Geithner's statements re tax payers being made whole on the AIG bail-out is untrue and misleading. This is the kind of truth seeking that must happen in order to fix this mess and assign blame where it is due. This is some of the most encouraging discussion I have heard so far. Ratigan keeps swinging for the truth in the maze of deceit. If enough people keep at this thing, we will finally get somewhere re the reforms and house cleaning needed.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Stimulus and inventory re-stocking ramps up Q4 GDP

daniellepark — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 10:13:00 -0500

The first estimate of US GDP today came in at 5.7% Q/Q annualized for Q4. This was the second consecutive quarter of GDP growth, and the first of 2009 to resemble anything like a post-recession bounce. The print came in stronger than market consensus for 4.7%.

On an annual basis, U.S. GDP growth is now up 0.1% Y/Y, which is an improvement from the -2.6% Y/Y pace seen in the final Q3 report. Based on the advance estimate the pace of growth during Q4 clocks in at the fastest since Q3-2003.

The key factor pushing GDP higher during the quarter can be attributed to the slowing pace of inventory liquidation after deep cuts early in the year. In Q4, the change in private inventories contributed a large 3.6 ppt to the headline print. Not surprisingly, residential investment was also quite positive during the quarter as favourable mortgage rates and good affordability spurred construction and renovations. (Caution: the next wave of foreclosure-induced inventory is coming soon to markets all over).

A few things to keep in mind here: the market was already expecting a big number for Q4. If we could not get a decent bounce in Q4 after massive inventory depletion and with enormous government help, then recovery would seem hopeless in deed. But it is also worth noting that the originally reported 3.5% Q/Q ann. gain in Q3 was eventually revised down to 2.2% Q/Q ann. We don't expect the Q4 number to be revised substantially lower at this point, but it is likely to get marked down somewhat on the next round of tabulations.

Lastly, the issue of focus here is what will the next two quarters of growth look like? Governments are beginning to pull back a bit from extraordinary measures (and Q4 GDP will encourage them to keep pulling back), meanwhile the real economy is still trembling with the after shocks of the credit bubble and on going deleveraging.

World markets have taken quite a drubbing in January, a relief rally here might be likely, but questions about "what kind of recovery?" will plague us for some time yet. Any euphoria over last quarter may be short-lived.

George Soros from Davos on Obama's banking proposals

daniellepark — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 13:31:00 -0500

George Soros did a 30 min interview with Bloomberg from Davos, and explains why he supports Obama's proposals to limit proprietary trading at banks. See the clip here.

AIG hearing testimony today

daniellepark — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:49:00 -0500

Honestly, I think everyone should watch some of this testimony and cross-examination from the hearing today. It is remarkable. I was trying to explain what happened to my kids as they watched some of it. No small feat to explain.

Each person is entitled to form their own opinion on the facts. Getting to the facts here is not simple. From what I can ascertain to date, I do not believe that Geithner, Paulson and company were acting in the best interests of the American tax payers first. Maybe they told themselves that they were; maybe they were wilfully blind and actually believed that they were. But this comes down to the fiduciary duty the government officials owed to the American people who they represented in their deliberations with the banks. They had a duty to put the tax payer ahead of all other interests. They had a duty to declare all conflicts of interest. They had a duty to disclose any secret profits being made. Not only did they not honour these duties in my view, but they sought to keep the details of the dealings confidential and closed from public review until 2018. Those who were footing the bill, where not supposed to see the math.

There is a strong apprehension of bias here. The stink is thick. And in my view, there is so far no clear evidence that bailing out AIG served the best interests of Main Street first...

Nouriel Roubini from Davos on asset bubbles and other froth

daniellepark — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 15:37:00 -0500

Good update from Roubini today on the present level of stock and commodity prices within the context of slow economic growth in 2010.

BNN on Wednesday morning

daniellepark — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 21:25:00 -0500

Ms. Park was a guest with Michael Kane on Business News Network (BNN) this morning, Wednesday January 27 at 8:35am. The clip is available on BNN web site here.

Here is a link to the McKinsey Institute report she mentioned in her appearance.

Chinese bubble = economic risk to commodity centric countries

daniellepark — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:10:00 -0500

Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has been garnering quite a bit of attention the past few months talking about the growing risks in the Chinese economy and the danger it presents to western countries that are banking on China's growth to carry them through a secular western slowdown.

Chanos, who predicted the fall of Enron and the financial crisis of 2008, says China is the next bubble to burst and is 1000 times worst than Dubai. He is looking at short opportunities there and in countries (like Australia and Canada) that ship large exports of commodities to China.

See his CNBC interview today (sadly CNBC seems to be preventing embedded clips now too, so you have to go to the site to find it) as well as this Bloomberg clip of his recent keynote presentation in England here (unfortunately the sound quality is poor, but the content is worthwhile).

Here is the Krugman article from 1994 The Myth of Asia's Miracle that Chanos calls "brilliant' in his keynote.

A key take away from all of this is an important understanding: China starts with its target GDP and then drives government spending and liquidity to meet the target. Presently China is making up an unprecedented 60% of its GDP target via forced fixed asset investment. Their growth story is not about end demand. This has created enormous over-capacity and over-supply across most sectors. The situation is not self-sustaining or durable and those banking on it continuing are doing so at ballooning financial risk.

What the Backlash Over Bonuses and AIG's Bailout Says About America

daniellepark — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:59:00 -0500

"With big banks revealing massive 2009 bonuses, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke now supporting a "full review" of AIG's bailout, and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner due to testify on the same, this is shaping up to be a watershed month in the bailout backlash department: "This whole situation is a mess for Bernanke, it's a mess for the banks ultimately and I'm not sure how we get out of it because the public wants blood," says Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics, and a longtime and critic of both Bernanke and Geithner."

See Tech Ticker story with Aaron Task.

Obama announces the "Volcker rule".

daniellepark — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:44:00 -0500

This afternoon Obama called for new restrictions on the "size and scope" of financial institutions. In what some are calling "Glass-Steagall Light" Obama proposed a "Volcker rule" that places restrictions on banks' ability to "invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers."

"If it’s a fight they want, it’s a fight I am ready to have" he said. Watch the Bloomberg clip here.

Leadership in this area will require a mandate of top down rules; negotiated principles are not likely to secure the changes needed. No more Mr. Nice guy Obama, we need to get this job done.

Paul Volcker Prevails? Stay tuned...

daniellepark — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 09:44:00 -0500

The Democrat oust in Massachusetts yesterday has apparently spurred the Obama administration to serious control proposals for the banks this morning. At last? We shall see. I do want to hope that Obama can find the strength to lead rather than keep following Tiny Tim and company; but until we get the details later today from the President's press conference we will have to remain sceptical. The first year of Obama has taught us to be sceptical. Different facts: but on similar principles, both Obama and Tiger Woods have let their believers down these past few months.

Meanwhile good article this morning in the Huffington Post (Hat tip Ray T.): see Paul Volker Prevails ... Let's hope.

US dollar rally continues today

daniellepark — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 15:17:00 -0500

Our technical work has been suggesting the likelihood of a US dollar rally for some weeks now. Today we are seeing that positive dollar trend continue with the now familiar accompanying sell-off in risk assets.

Today Mike Mish Shedlock gives a good summary of the likely macro reasons spurring the U dollar rally here. See Global Accidents Support US Dollar Rally.

Note that an American market commentator, Mike lists the "Canadian property bubble bursting" as one of his US dollar positives. My sense here is that most Canadians do not understand the potential risk we are facing with our over-indebted population and over-bought realty market.

The trouble with mental pegging to bubble levels

daniellepark — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 14:17:00 -0500

I had a great trip to Vancouver. Weather was spring-like, even sunny. Scenery there is stunning. And the new rapid transit line takes you from the airport to downtown in 25 minutes for $3.75; fantastic. Many natives are complaining though about the inconvenience and economic cost to local business leading up to the Olympics next month. Apparently, tourism and skiing traffic so far have been way down this year as people avoid Vancouver, thinking it will be too hectic and booked because of the Olympics. That is unfortunate because it really is a lovely and unique part of the world to visit.

I noted quite a sentiment shift over last year among attendees at the 2010 Vancouver Investment Conference. The remarkable rally in stocks and commodity prices the past few months has buoyed animal sprits again it seems. There is quite a bit of hope that the crisis is behind us and that pre-crisis price levels are a reasonable target up from here.

Watching the incredible news coverage out of Haiti the past week, I am of course, dumbfounded. The loss and suffering, the heroic acts it inspires in many: all surreal and all important points of reference for those of us presently in more fortunate circumstances.

As I mentioned in my talks in Vancouver: over the past couple of years, I have periodically likened the enormous shock of the financial crisis to the idea of an earthquake. Although the risks were building for a long period of time, and although Richter-like risk measurements were foreboding, too few people were taking note of the warning signs. Few saw the crisis coming; even less took active steps to avoid the loss and damage. Today, it strikes me that few people are now prepared for a likely long-period of after-shocks that will continue to ripple through financial markets and the economy for the next few years. We have to expect and navigate the after-shocks if we are to survive and thrive this challenging era in the world...