Our technical work has been suggesting the likelihood of a US dollar rally for some weeks now. Today we are seeing that positive dollar trend continue with the now familiar accompanying sell-off in risk assets.

Today Mike Mish Shedlock gives a good summary of the likely macro reasons spurring the U dollar rally here. See Global Accidents Support US Dollar Rally.

Note that an American market commentator, Mike lists the "Canadian property bubble bursting" as one of his US dollar positives. My sense here is that most Canadians do not understand the potential risk we are facing with our over-indebted population and over-bought realty market.   more »

I had a great trip to Vancouver. Weather was spring-like, even sunny. Scenery there is stunning. And the new rapid transit line takes you from the airport to downtown in 25 minutes for $3.75; fantastic. Many natives are complaining though about the inconvenience and economic cost to local business leading up to the Olympics next month. Apparently, tourism and skiing traffic so far have been way down this year as people avoid Vancouver, thinking it will be too hectic and booked because of the Olympics. That is unfortunate because it really is a lovely and unique part of the world to visit.

I noted quite a sentiment shift over last year among attendees at the 2010 Vancouver Investment Conference. The remarkable rally in stocks and commodity prices the past few months has buoyed animal sprits again it seems. There is quite a bit of hope that the crisis is behind us and that pre-crisis price levels are a reasonable target up from here.

Watching the incredible news coverage out of Haiti the past week, I am of course, dumbfounded. The loss and suffering, the heroic acts it inspires in many: all surreal and all important points of reference for those of us presently in more fortunate circumstances.

As I mentioned in my talks in Vancouver: over the past couple of years, I have periodically likened the enormous shock of the financial crisis to the idea of an earthquake. Although the risks were building for a long period of time, and although Richter-like risk measurements were foreboding, too few people were taking note of the warning signs. Few saw the crisis coming; even less took active steps to avoid the loss and damage. Today, it strikes me that few people are now prepared for a likely long-period of after-shocks that will continue to ripple through financial markets and the economy for the next few years. We have to expect and navigate the after-shocks if we are to survive and thrive this challenging era in the world...   more »