Sorry for the lack of writing the past ten days. I suppose I have been “making rather merry” as Bob Crachet would say. We have been having some fun with our family and friends, visiting a few clients, reading, snowshoeing, dog-sledding, board games, fresh air, big fires; all good. Now we are weather delayed at the airport; a typical end to a much savored break.

For me New Year's is the most significant holiday of the year. It is a natural point for reflection back and looking forward for what may be next to come. A new decade is particularly poignant. I cannot help but note how I am now in the midst of my 5th decade. If we are lucky in this life, we can hope to get maybe 8 or 9 decades. It’s amazing how fast our tiny handful of decades run by.

I think 2010 will be a fascinating year for the world. I wish I could see that the credit crisis is behind us. I believe that it is not. I can see that we have made some progress toward the new world order; but in truth the massive government intervention during the later half of 2009 did not solve but only slow and prolong the rebalancing period needed. Price risk in most asset markets in the world again measures unfavorably high going into 2010. This time last year we had hoped more progress would have been made by now in the re-pricing needed. I will be writing more on this next week.

Reckless behavior is no option, so patience and care will always be a virtue of great value in managing real life risk; such is the price of a thoughtful life. As Churchill said so eloquently, we will “keep buggering on” confident in our belief that notwithstanding near-term risks, today’s problems too shall eventually pass, and that the future holds great promise for the human race.
Happy New Year.   more »