For the past couple of years I have been saying that America would have to rebound first and firm up some demand before the world economy can climb out of this downturn. More bullish commentators have assured that Asia could rebound without the West.

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley explained (again) on CNBC yesterday, why hopes for the East to rebound before the West are unfounded in reality.

   more »

Whether markets are green or red at the end of the day often masks their internal health. Bear markets can maul prices down on any volume, but bull markets need buying pressure to keep them going. Think of shooting water from your garden hose up into the sky, it can only stay up as long as the pressure compels it. After that the water necessarily must fall back to earth. One of the more enlightening indicators of market health is the Lowry's index of buying versus selling pressure. Paul Desmond, President of Lowry Research, was recently featured on CNBC's "Fast Money Final Call," discussing why the data is suggesting a more substantial correction may be still to come.
   more »

Ms. Park was a guest Wed morning on BNN at 8:50 am EST. She also appeared on CNBC's Fast Money on Thursday June 26 at 5pm EST, live from NY. Clips of the interviews are available on the BNN and CNBC web sites. In the CNBC video you need to scroll though to 17:44 for the start of Ms. Park's appearance in the show.   more »

There are many areas of concern and conflict between the banking business and government these days. Debtor nations have fallen into bed with their bankers and now find themselves perilously tied in co-dependent positions they would not otherwise have chosen.

A large number of bank/brokerage bosses have gone into government after they have cashed out on Wall Street. The nepotism is blinding. But just as this sorted tale seems most insipid the Obama administration tossed in a hand grenade last week with a proposal for financial regularoty reform that includes an elevation of bank owned brokers to the standard of fiduciary duty when advising clients.

I write about the importance of legislating a fiduciary duty for financial advisory firms in Juggling Dynamite.

Up until now most investment sales people in the world have only answered to a “suitability” standard meaning they need only show that they had reasonable grounds for thinking that an investment product may meet a client’s needs. In other words if a product increases in value, the broker/dealer/advisors will take credit for the brilliance of the increase, but if a product loses value, they are in no way responsible for the losses. But fiduciary duty goes a whole lot further than this...   more »

Just finished reading Barry Ritholtz's new book Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook The World Economy:



Barry is one of the rare, refreshingly candid, financial commentators. He also has a law degree which helps him to easily recognize the glaring conflicts of interest in the finance world. Barry calls 'bullshit' with clarity, humour and style. While entertaining, the book delivers detailed perspective on past financial crisis, bailouts, and classically human mistakes, aided and abetted by government through the past 100 years.

Ritholtz uses his education and real life experience as a stool to stand on in order to see over the clouds of minutiae to big picture clarity. Available in fine stores everywhere or on line here. You can also read his daily blog here: The Big Picture.   more »

Over the past couple of years I have noted a lot of people espousing hope that Canada will be able to avoid much of the global downturn and/or rebound faster than other western countries from the global recession. This weekend John Mauldin (a commentator who I respect and often agree with) reminded me of this theme when he wrote:

"...this is a global problem and primarily one in the "developed world". I think we will find that much of Europe will be in a worse state of affairs than the U.S. If there are bright spots in the developed world, I tend to think they will be Canada and Australia/New Zealand." See This Time It's Different.

Most often this type of optimism rests on a few key ideas such as Canada has a resource-based economy, Canada has a sound banking system, and Canada has been more fiscally conservative. While I generally agree with these ideas in the abstract, in reality I am concerned that decoupling hopes are still as wishful now as they were last Spring, when many were opining that the Canadian stock market would be able to hold up in the midst of a global bear market. As the past 12 months wore on, investors learned the hard way again that Canada lags; we don't decouple. Our stock market peaked (a year ago) in May 2008, 7 months after the US markets, but then fell a similar 50% to March 2009...   more »

Today the risk trade continues to be under attack with the US dollar strengthening against other more emerging economies. As I have pointed out a few times in the past couple of months, the over-exuberance in emerging markets, commodities and their currencies, has been primarily speculation against the US dollar and not in response to increasing global demand or economic expansion. These sentiment driven speculations can be wild and reckless; capital protective strategies are needed.

A few key themes are slowly seeping into the collective consciousness at this point...   more »

It was with much sadness that I heard this weekend of the passing of Peter L. Bernstein at age 90. Peter was a rare voice of wisdom in the often misguided world of finance.

His perspective was rare and valuable because it was anchored in real world experience spanning 9 decades, conveyed through a remarkable intellect and gift for teaching. In a world too often led astray by confident formulas and theory, Peter was an academic and a pragmatist. He spent years as a front-line practitioner managing money for clients at the investment counsel firm his father had founded in the 30's. After serving in the War, Peter joined his dad's firm in 1951 just in time for the big secular bull of the 50's and 60's when stock market gains were above average and concern about risk faded into a phase of systemic complacency...
   more »

From a low in the $30's just a few months ago, oil has now surged back above $68 a barrel. Most of this double has been in response to the falling US dollar; certainly not a renewed wave of world consumption.

Recently we hear rumblings of the familiar old "decoupling" chant. Oil Bulls are opining that recent price strength is spurred by rebounding commodity demand in Chindia notwithstanding the ongoing plummet in western consumption. So far the evidence is unconvincing...   more »

Ms. Park will be speaking at the World Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this weekend, organized by Cambridge House International. Each year this June showcase of leading Canadian resource companies and speakers is highly attended and acclaimed.   more »

I spent some time chatting with Aaron Task and Henry Blodget at the NASDAQ studios June 4; very lively discussion over three different segments.

The first video clip is available on the Yahoo.com site here:    more »

Here is the third of the three Teck Ticker segments, which was actually taped first in our conversation...

   more »

Second Tech Ticker clip with Henry Blodget and Aaron Task is now on line here:


   more »

I will be in NY this week for some meetings and to attend The Big Picture conference on Wednesday.   more »