Hi Danielle,
I have heard you say many times that you use a money flow indicator as one of your primary tools in assessing if an index is overbought or oversold and to what degree. I have done a lot of research on this indicator to learn about it but have yet to find a website where I can access the data for free. Do you know where I can? Thanks for reading and considering my question.

Daryl

Our money flow indicator is something we have put together from several different technical filters that we follow. Richard Russell has his PTI, we have our EQ Trendwatch. You can put together your own set of filters but you need to do some study and testing to know what and how to use it. You could start by reading some of the technical articles that I have linked on Venable Park and some of the Tech analysis books in my recommended reading list. Good luck.

Hi Danielle,

I would just like to get your thoughts on this recent market that wont correct. It really seems like more of a mini bull market than a bear market rally. It sort of reminds me of last year at this same time. The financials seem to be running out of steam yet oil goes up every single day. I remember you saying that energy is the last asset to usually exhaust itself. I would appreciate your comments on this as they are always valuable.

Thanks,
Parm

The energy run over the past few months has been mostly in response to the falling US dollar, it is not a fundamental demand story. Traders and speculators are involved. I don't see much in the way of signs that this is a bull market rally. The sector leadership, volume, valuations and macro-economic backdrop, so far don't support the thesis of a new cyclical bull. But that is not to say that we will necessarily see new lows below March 9 levels in the future. It is really hard to call which way this will break next as the markets are right at some key long term support resistance. Maybe they will break through on sheer momentum in the near term. If so, you may want to add to your equity exposure and watch it really closely for the signs of deterioration again. I would also suggest keeping some cash over the summer months is on the possibility that we could see some lower entry points ahead.

Hello Danielle,

Speaking of this energy run, I would mention the supply side, because OPEC wants US$80 for a barrel of oil, and I think they will succed this time. Not to mention a mothballed drilling projects to come alive again needs a US$70 at least, and hurrican season is coming soon.
The WTI oil price reverting to the mean would support my own US$80 a barrel theory as well, specially if those future traders are right.
I have to admit that I'm a firm believer in the peak oil theory.
Recently I had hard time about NG stocks, just like catching a falling knife.
I think it's just a matter of time until the Obama administration start to convert those coal fired energy plants to a cleaner natural gas ones. There are more than 200 of them.

When commodity prices surge based on speculation versus actual demand at a time when the economy is fragile - then there runs the risk that surge will actually impede the economy's ability to recover.

There is a logic to all this but unfortunately it often gets trumped by greed of speculators which result in imbalances etc.

Take for example oil. The word is awash in it, they are running out of room to store it and yet the price has just experienced the biggest one month gain in a decade. In my logic, when I see tankers being used for storing oil - thats a bearish sign not bullish.

Anyways - saw you on BNN - really appreciate the insights you offered.