The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) collapsed in 2008 and into the summer of 2009, then rallied sharply the past 2 months. This has encouraged some to conclude that global shipping is now in recovery. The problem is that as a leading indicator the BDI has become distorted recently to more of China stimulus indicator than a global trade indicator. Less than 10% of bulk imports have been coming to America, with about 50% going to China for stimulus driven stock-piling and re-stocking. In addition an unusually large surge in new ships coming on stream this year and next is likely to drive shipping prices down again over the coming months as many vessels bid to carry below-trend global trade volumes.
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Books
Press Release Praise for Juggling Dynamite “An explosive critique about the investment industry: provocative and well worth reading.”  –Financial Post“Juggling Dynamite, #1 pick for best new books about money and markets.” –MoneySense“Park manages to not only explain finances well for the average person, she also manages to entertain and educate, while cutting through the clutter of information she knows every investor faces.” –Toronto Sun
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Tuesday, November 24
Baltic Dry Index: recent bounce not likely to continue
by
daniellepark
on Tue 24 Nov 2009 11:27 PM EST
Warning: the consensus sees no respite for the U$ dollar, no relapse for China
by
daniellepark
on Tue 24 Nov 2009 06:38 PM EST
The most common consensus today is that the U$ will continue to relentlessly fall and that China is an economic saviour for the world. Colour me skeptic: I can't buy either view.
China is a communist country that still arrests its citizens for protesting its government. It is a place where the one child policy has rendered a population horribly deficient in women, birth rates and young people. It is a country with so little social safety net that its citizens save 40% of their incomes to fund their own health care and personal security. A place where so many struggle to meet their basic needs that civil unrest boils close to the surface at all times. In the interests of retaining control and civil obedience the Chinese government insists on growth. But as Enron executives learned the hard way, insisting on perpetual growth rates above organic demand is a game plan doomed to eventual failure. It’s only a matter of time before reality will reveal truth. In the meantime those trying to bank on the reported economic data coming out of China are undoubtedly doing so at great risk. "Demand" in China is not always what it seems. For a sample of this point, watch: China's empty city ... more »
BNN Wed Nov 25 at 8:45am EST
by
daniellepark
on Tue 24 Nov 2009 05:12 PM EST
Ms. Park was a guest on Business News Network (BNN) this morning, November 25 at 8:45 am EST. The clip is available on BNN web site here. more »
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Key Interview
Danielle speaks with Jonathan Chevreau on the Financial Post's blog Wealthy Boomer.
Part 1 Part 2 Recent Multimedia
Audio and Video Interviews“Dear Ms. Park, I watched your appearance on BNN today, and I just have to leave you a message saying 'Thank you' for giving viewers your very frank opinions about how things are going and certain industry practices. I appreciated you trying to give as much information as you could during that (too) short segment. Thank you for what you are doing for all investors!” —blog reader, April 30, 2008
“Each time I see Danielle Park on BNN, I am impressed with her comments and insights. Other than Rick Santelli on CNBC, she is the only commentator that I feel is completely honest and trustworthy.” —M. Scher, Toronto
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