Today we received the official first guesstimate of US Q1 GDP from the BEA. In real, after-inflation terms, we were told that the economy grew for the second quarter in a row by a sub-par but conveniently positive .6% "annualized".

Taking this number as prima facie good news, some markets cheered this evidence that the US had thus far escaped recession.

Not all of us are comforted by an optimistic spin on the data. Congratulations! It’s a Recession! was the take from many who have been discounting the government- fudged inflation numbers for some time now.

"..the goal of GDP should be to figure out how much the economy is expanding or contracting--not how much prices rose. By any honest measure of inflation--and not the 3.5% BEA price index for gross domestic purchases--both of the past two quarters would have been negative."   more »