Ms. Park was the guest Portfolio Manager on BNN, Market Lookahead today at 9:20am. The clip is available for replay on line for a limited time after the appearance at www.bnn.ca.   more »

Today the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fulfilled my expectations with an accelerated decline of -12.7% Y/Y in February, down from -10.7% Y/Y in January.
The Composite-10 index was even worse at -13.6% Y/Y, down from -11.4% Y/Y in January.

On a regional basis, it should be no surprise that the cities in the South and Southwest regions of the U.S. are faring the worst, with Las Vegas home prices leading the pack at -22.9% Y/Y. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committe at Standard & poor's." You can see the full report here.

If there is no bottom yet in sight for housing, I can't see the bottom yet in sight for this economic downturn.

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There has been a strengthening price cycle in hard assets over the past 8 years. In the past couple of years, as prices have doubled and tripled, many have been salivating over the double digit growth of China and India as the fundamental argument for endless demand and boundless prices.

Too often overlooked though is the fact that China's economy has already been growing at a double digit clip for the past 30 years. How can this long standing growth justify increases of 500 and 600% in many commodity prices over just the past couple of years? The answer that commodity fans hate to hear is that a speculative bubble has been driving commodity prices to recent heights.

Notwithstanding the developing country demand story, money flows into commodities have recently been driven primarily by a falling US dollar and sub-par investment opportunities in more conventional assets like real estate, stocks and bonds. "Hot funds" flowing from hedge funds and pensions desperate for yield are driving prices to a fevered pitch posing greater and greater risk to capital and world stability.

Ironically many pension funds today are facing daunting deficits because of their double or nothing speculation in stocks in the late 90's tech bubble. Rather than face the need to admit mistakes and increase funding, many are now grovelling ‘round the commodities craps table for one more hopeful toss against mounting odds.   more »