There has been a lot of pessimism about the economy over the past few weeks. Today was a big relief rally on news that some companies like JP Morgan and Intel had fared better than feared.

For those of us that had anticipated present problems before they became widely recognized, we can’t help but feel surprise now at how “unexpected” recent bad news is to many mainstream commentators.

That said stock markets have been thrashing wildly in violent fits and drops. Will markets break out to a fresh new bull from here? Obviously no honest person can say with certainty. Those of us that know markets well know that strange things can happen. But it is noteworthy that healthy market expansions do not exhibit this extreme volatility day to day, week to week. Healthy markets are not so bi-polar.

For the time being, we are watching our technical indicators with care as always. If there is a meaningful and sustained break through long-term support we will see it. But we are not there yet. Until then we are still in a bear market, the same bear market that we have avoided while it harmed others over the past 12 months.

Fortunately we are not desperate to pile back in to ride this wild market wherever it may take us. That is the beauty of having a management discipline while others flip-flop madly about.

Markets may rally on hope that the credit crunch worst is past. That may be correct. But I suspect that even if it is, more typical cyclical issues will inevitably stomp into focus:
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