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Thrift is back in Vogue

by daniellepark on Sun 21 Dec 2008 10:59 AM EST | Permanent Link | Cosmos

I like Gary Shilling. He has been around a long time, seen it all and (most importantly) took notes. He has a knack for connecting key global themes. He did this interview Friday:

The future is a much different place from where we have been the past 20 years. This means lean, efficient, smart will win. Excessive, wasteful, sloth will fail. Those who are resourceful and flexible will adapt and thrive. Those clinging to the past status quo and a sense of entitlement will not.

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Re: Thrift is back in Vogue

by parm on Mon 22 Dec 2008 05:32 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

Hi Danielle,

I viewed this clip of Gary Shilling and I have also viewed a few more in the same interview. He is predicting S&P 500 to go as low as 600. I have also read your comments that say the TSX could possibly go to the high 5000 level. However in the audio clip of your interview you say that we may have seen a bottom and that we may retest the november lows. I am just a bit confused as to which one it is? Thank you

Parm

Re: Re: Thrift is back in Vogue

by daniellepark on Mon 22 Dec 2008 09:47 PM EST | Profile | Permanent Link

I see two scenarios that are possible. One is that we are in a range bound secular bear where the 2002/03 low on the S&P proves the final low this downturn. If that is the case we hit it in November '08 and even if we see a retest this Spring, the Nov low will hold and then relaunch the next cyclical bull from there. Another scenario is that we are in a lower, low type of secular bear (like '66-'82) where the ultimate low this cycle will be lower than the Nov 2008 low. If that is the case, a future re-test in the next few weeks or months will break through to a fresh low this cycle which has yet to be defined. In Canada this means an ultimate low could be worse than the 7600 or so hit in November and we could see 5678 or even worse. We just have no way to tell at this point which type of bear this will be.

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